Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 91922.903206 96936.090423 101945.477243 107323.244796 112929.586876 118598.427385 124760.221199
2025-07-06 83348.705246 90993.614873 98843.683926 107496.436062 116755.658053 126356.111148 137052.153825
2025-07-13 78337.873016 87886.216646 97901.866293 109169.363898 121470.020241 134468.808871 149221.561804
2025-07-20 74397.554714 85397.712498 97143.424730 110582.652346 125497.054036 141503.991047 159944.732889
2025-07-27 70832.345197 82963.740948 96121.529959 111400.227195 128598.839376 147304.911470 169132.624013
2025-08-03 67377.322491 80386.610421 94698.892300 111541.479703 130744.358261 151880.482896 176825.668367
2025-08-10 64520.859934 78295.307991 93648.320306 111936.566342 133030.376437 156498.027258 184478.420431
2025-08-17 61806.588574 76209.284853 92460.319219 112039.221674 134865.711851 160513.896775 191382.022822
2025-08-24 60038.856960 75121.779408 92331.886845 113281.383424 137944.562305 165904.960985 199840.006096
2025-08-31 57672.535736 73211.775727 91138.978821 113183.159372 139382.429697 169342.861731 206002.260424
2025-09-07 56363.877584 72498.416450 91299.524385 114630.559762 142596.982195 174827.729004 214552.613429
2025-09-14 54895.074652 71520.875645 91083.782036 115575.938665 145176.877019 179547.017248 222204.477739
2025-09-21 53043.682231 70026.949331 90210.909604 115710.139070 146787.537539 183146.253198 228590.224280
2025-09-28 51252.888822 68545.210450 89298.289419 115748.695596 148248.769824 186551.535321 234751.180591
2025-10-05 50431.301240 68237.960716 89796.734283 117491.644471 151768.636063 192429.392227 243904.674138
2025-10-12 49545.855690 67809.832403 90112.654308 118984.140434 154969.582758 197926.403521 252624.331628
2025-10-19 48418.483720 67028.937635 89950.311111 119850.094956 157378.182195 202456.143864 260183.836997
2025-10-26 47021.923055 65852.965442 89247.374322 119999.598540 158868.533672 205848.329191 266355.086976
2025-11-02 45822.508847 64893.119213 88783.025463 120418.792270 160672.635603 209615.450211 272992.444820
2025-11-09 44546.791203 63792.045763 88101.031357 120527.711539 162061.347196 212855.866265 278981.395505
2025-11-16 43859.736069 63446.800679 88374.032944 121845.833135 164974.263636 217996.861332 287353.146770
2025-11-23 42601.345668 62298.924941 87569.157491 121741.606865 166052.770743 220833.809615 292853.151876
2025-11-30 42083.405352 62131.596175 88033.720646 123277.337583 169230.793372 226318.207543 301699.533198